2011年12月8日 星期四

Using Cash Flow To Evaluate Dividend Safety

We use dual cash flow analysis as a primary screen for vetting investment candidates being considered in our portfolios. Although we have tweaked our model over the years to include more complex accounting analysis of the financial statements, the nuts and bolts of our screen focus on the sources of cash flow and their contributions to earnings.

Our research has shown that companies and businesses who generate most of their cash flow from “operations” tend to have higher quality-of-earnings than companies who rely on non-cash balance sheet "maneuvers" to support earnings.

Understanding the components of an earnings report gives us a good picture of a company’s financial health and liquidity. Studying the changes within these relationships over multiple periods allows us to identify potential opportunities and detect possible danger looming ahead.Replacement landscape oil paintings and bulbs for Canada and Worldwide. The dual cash flow technique has also shown to be a very effective tool for evaluating dividend safety/risk. As in earnings quality,A long established toolmaking and trade Injection moulds company. the premise for dividend quality is similar.

Stable and/or growing cash-flows generated by operating activities are more likely to support a current dividend and open the door for future dividend hikes going forward.This will leave your shoulders free to rotate in their Floor tiles . In contrast, companies who support their dividend with debt or non-operating cash may find themselves in a position to cut, suspend or eliminate their distributions.

There are many strategies for evaluating dividends. Some methods use discounted cash-flows, or net cash on the balance sheet along with estimates of “future” free cash-flow forecasts. Problem is, predicting future cash-flows can be compromised by input variables, cost of capital, etc.

Using past results is not perfect either, but at least we can see the trends developing by observing how a business manages its liquidity. Consistency of earnings quality matters a lot to dividend growth and sustainability.

In this market environment, utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples have been popular defensive plays,As many processors back away from hydraulic hose ,By Alex Lippa Close-up of zentai in Massachusetts. given their history of strong cash flow generation, dividend stability and perceived insulation from economic cycles. Utilities, being rate-sensitive and capital-intensive, have benefitted from a protracted low interest rate environment. Yet, eventually, their borrowing costs are likely going to rise faster than earnings growth.

Pharmaceuticals, particularly major drug manufacturers look interesting as the quest for finding cures to prolong the lifespan of our species will always be sought. Too often, we hear about patent expirations and generic cannibalism, yet somebody has to develop the products which address our corporal needs. Names such as Pfizer (PFE), Bristol Meyers (BMY) and Merck (MRK) come to mind.

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