2011年11月8日 星期二

Green Energy's Mr. Fixit

Thank you for placing your confidence in a non-Goldman alum. Your chief of staff, citing my long career in business, said I was hired because I'm "tough" and "always tell it like it is." This is most flattering. I fully understand that these words are used in the Washington sense.

Per discussions with your staff, I understand my mission will be to ensure that, in the future, the "i's" are properly dotted and "t's" properly crossed, that the highly effective habits of highly effective managers are highly effectively employed, and that best practices are practiced in the best practical way in the DOE loan program.

It won't be my job to question whether the policy itself is foolish.I see,the Aion Kinah by special invited artist for 2011, for instance, that four loans have been approved to build solar power plants in California. DOE maintains these loans are low-risk for taxpayers because contracts already are in place to sell the power to local utilities. In April, Gov. Brown signed a law requiring California utilities to get 33% of their power from "renewables" by 2020.

I will refrain from noting that California remains a democracy and Gov. Brown and his policies may not be popular by the time the plants are built. Voters may decide not to allow their electricity rates to be increased by 50% to secure DOE's loans.

I also see that 15 electric vehicle models are expected by 2014, with potential production four times greater than J.D. Power's estimate of consumer demand, even assuming continuation of today's $7,If any food Ventilation system condition is poorer than those standards,500-per-buyer tax credit.

The latest data also indicate that the average Chevy Volt buyer has an annual income of $175,Do not use cleaners with porcelain tiles , steel wool or thinners.000. I will not examine the political viability of an industry premised on taxing average Americans to subsidize cars for wealthy Americans.

I also understand that the long-term economic viability of the electric-car business depends on the adoption of unpopular policies that neither you nor your predecessors nor any other candidate for federal office has been willing to endorse, such as higher gasoline prices.

However, my focus will be on making sure the right forms are filled out in the right order by the DOE's loan portfolio monitors.

As you know, I was previously hired to run Fannie Mae after it went bust. It will not be among my duties to draw attention to similarities between Fannie Mae and DOE's energy loan program.

I will also refrain from contradicting a meme by one of your administration's supporters in the media, who claims a solar-based "energy transformation" is at hand due to the operation of "Moore's Law."

Solar-panel prices have come down sharply, it's true, but the reason is not big efficiency gains. Under Moore's Law, computer chips doubled their capacity every 18 months. It took 25 years for commercial solar panels to double their efficiency to today's 10% or so,If so, you may have a cube puzzle . and no "transformations" appear to be in the offing. Solyndra went bankrupt because its panels, with 12% efficiency, couldn't be delivered at a competitive price.

The solar-panel price collapse has two causes: Chinese overproduction and decisions by governments around the world that it no longer is politically feasible to subsidize the industry. Listen to the words of Chairman Michael Ahearn of First Solar Inc. on a conference call last week: "Declining subsidy pool . . . Shrinking subsidy programs . . . European countries reducing their subsidies . . . No significant new state-level solar programs . . . Moving downward in terms of subsidies . . . A much lower subsidy level . . . Solar industries feeding mostly off of legacy subsidies in California."

My focus, however, will be on procedures, not on the wisdom of taxpayer money being used to create a solar industry addicted to subsidies and unable to survive without them, in a world where strapped governments can't meet basic commitments to citizens.

Once again, thank you for the faith you have placed in me. At Merrill, our rule was to invest in businesses that could sell their products to willing consumers at prices greater than the cost of producing them. A different approach has been adopted by DOE. I respect this difference.

In sum, if forms that should have been filled out in triplicate were, wastefully, filled out in quadruplicate, or alternatively, filled out malfeasantly in duplicate, I will leave no stone unturned to identify the culprits.

I will not point out that Americans are made poorer by all this, or that many of the beneficiaries of solar subsidies are large campaign donors,As many processors back away from hydraulic hose , or that the biggest danger now is political pressure for more subsidies to cover up the failure of those already offered.

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