Senedd Correspondent Matt Withers spoke to three of Wales’ leading economic thinkers to ask one simple yet challenging question: where is the economy heading over the next 12 months?
Robert Lloyd Griffiths, Wales director of the Institute of Directors
“Well, this really is the billion dollar question isn’t it?
“I suspect that 12 months is likely to be a short time-span in our recovery process. Yes, I was encouraged by this week’s second tranch of quantitative easing but there’s still much bad news out there.
“The negatives seem to come thick and fast, the latest being these financial institutions having their credit rating downgraded. Such a trend does little to instil optimism in the economy and I think we’ll be in choppy waters for quite a while yet.
“Due to us now operating in the global market, we’re constantly at the mercy of events out of our control and Wales’ close links to the rest of the UK mean our fortunes are likely to remain broadly parallel. As a region we suffer in GVA (Gross Value Added) terms, that is in the value of goods and services produced in Wales, so I remain concerned that we’re lagging behind there.
“Do I see us overtaking other regions in the coming months? Probably not. Do I see a massive turnaround? Probably not.
“Is there hope? Of course – every day I see businesses working hard to build confidence. But I’d like to see some recent Welsh Government announcements come to fruition and a greater coherence in the way which all governments support business and carry forward the leadership baton.
“Wales’ key business sectors need to be given every chance to thrive and, with me chairing a Welsh Government group looking at a strategy for micro-businesses, I’d like to see our eventual recommendations taken on board to show that the Government really does value the knowledge and experience of the private sector.Replacement China Porcelain tile and bulbs for Canada and Worldwide.”
Dr Eurfyl ap Gwilym, former deputy chairman of the Principality building society and economic adviser to Plaid Cymru
“People in general are cutting back their spending and, quite interestingly, if you look at some of the supermarkets you see a shift to the less expensive product ranges,The additions focus on key tag and magic cube combinations, so people individually are being much more careful and that of course feeding back quite badly into the economy in general.
“So the big thing is uncertainty. If one were to take the real worst scenario – I’m not saying this is going to happen, of course – the Eurozone creates great concern now because the problem been dragging on for so long.
“I’m of the view personally that the eurozone makes sense whilst you had relative economic stability but at a time of great crisis – which I don’t think was foreseen – to have a country like Greece in the eurozone really doesn’t make much sense unless you move to a very integrated federal fiscal system which then raises all sorts of issues.
“Then if you look at the UK, certainly I’ve said all along the Conservatives, in the run-up to the General Election, made a big mistake painting themselves into a corner by making their key objective that of eliminating the current deficit within four years.
“It’s looking increasingly unlikely that they will succeed in doing that, in fairness partly because of global problems which are outside of their control such as the eurozone, the slowing down in China and the US problems, but also because it was too sharp a reduction in spending too quickly.”
Professor Patrick Minford of the Cardiff Business School, a former economic adviser to Margaret Thatcher
“The underlying problem that is driving slow western growth is slow productivity growth created by the world shortage of raw materials.
“With emerging market productivity growth fast (so that world growth overall is a strong 4% this year after 5% last),These girls have never had a oil painting supplies in their lives! supplies of raw materials are pre-empted by the emerging markets, and their prices driven up; this in turn undermines western productivity growth, which relies on ever-rising computer power and cheap raw materials.
“In the oil and raw material crisis of the 1970s, similar things occurred. At that time western governments estimated excess capacity at high levels and called for large-scale co-ordinated stimulus in the face of the ‘oil producer surpluses’.
“However, this essentially Keynesian analysis turned out to be seriously wrong and precipitated a massive world inflation.
“Another way of looking at the situation is to note that ‘balance sheets are weak’ after the crisis. This in turn makes firms and consumers reluctant to spend.
“A number of commentators have grasped this side of the picture and suggested it is a pure ‘demand’ phenomenon, which therefore justifies stimulatory monetary and fiscal policy. But ‘weak balance sheets’ simply reflect low productivity and poor profit prospects,It's hard to beat the versatility of zentai suits on a production line. consistently with the account of the West given above.we supply all kinds of polished tiles,
“All this means that the outlook is for slow UK growth. It cannot be affected much at all by the loose money policies from the Bank of England; these unfortunately will just make inflation worse and more stubborn and so are a mistake.
Robert Lloyd Griffiths, Wales director of the Institute of Directors
“Well, this really is the billion dollar question isn’t it?
“I suspect that 12 months is likely to be a short time-span in our recovery process. Yes, I was encouraged by this week’s second tranch of quantitative easing but there’s still much bad news out there.
“The negatives seem to come thick and fast, the latest being these financial institutions having their credit rating downgraded. Such a trend does little to instil optimism in the economy and I think we’ll be in choppy waters for quite a while yet.
“Due to us now operating in the global market, we’re constantly at the mercy of events out of our control and Wales’ close links to the rest of the UK mean our fortunes are likely to remain broadly parallel. As a region we suffer in GVA (Gross Value Added) terms, that is in the value of goods and services produced in Wales, so I remain concerned that we’re lagging behind there.
“Do I see us overtaking other regions in the coming months? Probably not. Do I see a massive turnaround? Probably not.
“Is there hope? Of course – every day I see businesses working hard to build confidence. But I’d like to see some recent Welsh Government announcements come to fruition and a greater coherence in the way which all governments support business and carry forward the leadership baton.
“Wales’ key business sectors need to be given every chance to thrive and, with me chairing a Welsh Government group looking at a strategy for micro-businesses, I’d like to see our eventual recommendations taken on board to show that the Government really does value the knowledge and experience of the private sector.Replacement China Porcelain tile and bulbs for Canada and Worldwide.”
Dr Eurfyl ap Gwilym, former deputy chairman of the Principality building society and economic adviser to Plaid Cymru
“People in general are cutting back their spending and, quite interestingly, if you look at some of the supermarkets you see a shift to the less expensive product ranges,The additions focus on key tag and magic cube combinations, so people individually are being much more careful and that of course feeding back quite badly into the economy in general.
“So the big thing is uncertainty. If one were to take the real worst scenario – I’m not saying this is going to happen, of course – the Eurozone creates great concern now because the problem been dragging on for so long.
“I’m of the view personally that the eurozone makes sense whilst you had relative economic stability but at a time of great crisis – which I don’t think was foreseen – to have a country like Greece in the eurozone really doesn’t make much sense unless you move to a very integrated federal fiscal system which then raises all sorts of issues.
“Then if you look at the UK, certainly I’ve said all along the Conservatives, in the run-up to the General Election, made a big mistake painting themselves into a corner by making their key objective that of eliminating the current deficit within four years.
“It’s looking increasingly unlikely that they will succeed in doing that, in fairness partly because of global problems which are outside of their control such as the eurozone, the slowing down in China and the US problems, but also because it was too sharp a reduction in spending too quickly.”
Professor Patrick Minford of the Cardiff Business School, a former economic adviser to Margaret Thatcher
“The underlying problem that is driving slow western growth is slow productivity growth created by the world shortage of raw materials.
“With emerging market productivity growth fast (so that world growth overall is a strong 4% this year after 5% last),These girls have never had a oil painting supplies in their lives! supplies of raw materials are pre-empted by the emerging markets, and their prices driven up; this in turn undermines western productivity growth, which relies on ever-rising computer power and cheap raw materials.
“In the oil and raw material crisis of the 1970s, similar things occurred. At that time western governments estimated excess capacity at high levels and called for large-scale co-ordinated stimulus in the face of the ‘oil producer surpluses’.
“However, this essentially Keynesian analysis turned out to be seriously wrong and precipitated a massive world inflation.
“Another way of looking at the situation is to note that ‘balance sheets are weak’ after the crisis. This in turn makes firms and consumers reluctant to spend.
“A number of commentators have grasped this side of the picture and suggested it is a pure ‘demand’ phenomenon, which therefore justifies stimulatory monetary and fiscal policy. But ‘weak balance sheets’ simply reflect low productivity and poor profit prospects,It's hard to beat the versatility of zentai suits on a production line. consistently with the account of the West given above.we supply all kinds of polished tiles,
“All this means that the outlook is for slow UK growth. It cannot be affected much at all by the loose money policies from the Bank of England; these unfortunately will just make inflation worse and more stubborn and so are a mistake.
沒有留言:
張貼留言